1.
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Born: September 15, 1946 - San Saba, Texas, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1992 - Best Supporting Actor for JFK (nom); 1994 - Best Supporting Actor for The Fugitive (win); 2008 - Best Leading Actor for In the Valley of Elah (nom);
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2007 - No Country for Old Men
COMMENT: Locked. He got rave reviews for more than holding himself alongside the acting giant Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, he delivered a beautiful performance in Hope Springs (I still don't get why he didn't received a Golden Globe nomination in the Best Actor - Comedy or Musical category) and MIB3 just reminded people how awesome he is. It is a rockin' year for Tommy Lee Jones, an actor that never meant a lot to me, but there's no way to deny he's a clear front-runner in the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race. His only major threat is Philip Seymour Hoffman, but I believe Lincoln Best Picture-quality will benefit him a lot and he may take the golden man home in his sleep.
2.
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Born: July 23, 1967 - Fairport, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2006 - Best Leading Actor for Capote (win); 2008 - Best Supporting Actor for Charlie Wilson's War (nom); 2009 - Best Supporting Actor for Doubt (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1999 - Flawless; 2000 - Almost Famous; 2007 - The Savages; 2011 - The Ides of March
COMMENT: One of the most interesting actors working today, Seymour Hoffman is one of the most capable actors in the industry and his performance in The Master is simply amazing and one of the most praised ones of the year. Paul Thomas Anderson's movie always feature strong performances and his latest is no exception, being Phoenix & Seymour Hoffman show. In fact, both actors received the Volpi Cup of Best Actor of Venice Film Festival and Hoffman is living an immaculated awards season, getting Golden Globe, SAG Award and Critics' Choice nods and being considered the strongest contender for an Oscar win alongside Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln). Receiving enthusiastic raves for his acting work in The Master, Mr. Hoffman will likely be part of the Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominees shortlist (and let's be honest: this man more than deserves a fourth nod).
3.
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Born: August 17, 1943 - New York City, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1975 - Best Supporting Actor for The Godfather: Part II (win); 1977 - Best Leading Actor for Taxi Driver (nom); 1979 - Best Leading Actor for The Deer Hunter (nom); 1981 - Best Leading Actor for Raging Bull (win); 1991 - Best Leading Actor for Awakenings (nom); 1992 - Best Leading Actor for Cape Fear (nom);
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2000 - Meet the Parents
COMMENT: I have no doubts about De Niro's acting abilities, since he's just one of my favorite actors working today, but his performance in Silver Linings Playbook just shows one of most complex characters he has built in the last 20 years. While we can't deny a lot of buzz he's getting and all the awards attention is because Silver Linings is a Best Picture front-runner and this is his most relevant performance in years (since Meet the Parents, in my opinion), serving as the perfect excuse to nominate him and maybe put his career back on track. Playing a character (and not a charicature) already gave him a SAG Award and a Critics' Choice noms, and I believe an Oscar nomination comes next - the AMPAS just loves a critical comeback from an acting titan.
4.
Alan Arkin for Argo
Born: March 26, 1934 - New York City, New York, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1967 - Best Leading Actor for The Russians Are Coming the Russians Are Coming (nom); 1969 - Best Leading Actor for The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter (nom); 2007 - Best Supporting Actor for Little Miss Sunshine (win);
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2001 - Thirteen Conversations About One Thing
COMMENT: A showy performance, not a "brilliant" one from my point of view, Alan Arkin's work in Argo is gaining a lot of Oscar buzz more because of movie's Best Picture buzz than because of the performance itself. Don't get me wrong: Arkin is hilarious and his role is one of those "simply delicious". He's having a rockin' awards season and since such a buzzy movie like Argo always get at least one acting nom, I think Arkin is a lock in this race (specially after getting a Golden Globe, a SAG Award and a Critics' Choice Award noms). Missing a nom for Argo would be one of the biggest Oscar upsets of the year, for sure.
5.
Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike
Born: November 4, 1969 - Uvalde, Texas, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: The biggest question in the Best Supporting Actor race is who will get the fifth spot, since all the other four seem to have solid contenders that will likely get nominated. From my point of view, I see Matthew McConaughey getting nominated this year for his hyper-sexualized hilarious performance in Steven Soderbergh's Magic Mike. While I'm conscious Magic Mike is the kind of movie a big couple of Oscar voters may not love, I believe McConaughey's successful year (Bernie + Killer Joe + Magic Mike (+ The Paperboy)) will benefit his chances in the AMPAS members' minds. In fact, McConaughey is the movie's best chance for an Oscar nomination and while I must admit I was surprised about not seeing him between the Golden Globe nominees, I can't forget he took home the NYFCC Award of Best Supporting Actor home and he's nominated for a Critics' Choice Award and an Independent Spirit Award in the same category. Plus, Magic Mike has a big fanbase and McConaughey will appear next year in Martin Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street and as a man with HIV/AIDS in Dallas Buyers Club - I believe he's a safe choice for the AMPAS.
6. Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
Born: October 4, 1956 - Vienna, Austria
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2010 - Best Supporting Actor for Inglorious Basterds (win)
Oscar snubed performances: none
COMMENT: Internal competition. It's a DiCaprio Vs Waltz fight for a place between the Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominees and I truly believe only one of them will made part of the final cut. The studio reported they would promote Waltz in the Leading Actor category, but it seems all the award recognition is about him as a supporting actor. Rave reviews and a solid awards season (in spite of missing SAG and Critics' Choice Awards nods), but category placement questions and internal competition may not give him the Oscar nod, since people will want to give at least 1 acting nom to Django Unchained.
6. Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
Born: October 4, 1956 - Vienna, Austria
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2010 - Best Supporting Actor for Inglorious Basterds (win)
Oscar snubed performances: none
COMMENT: Internal competition. It's a DiCaprio Vs Waltz fight for a place between the Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominees and I truly believe only one of them will made part of the final cut. The studio reported they would promote Waltz in the Leading Actor category, but it seems all the award recognition is about him as a supporting actor. Rave reviews and a solid awards season (in spite of missing SAG and Critics' Choice Awards nods), but category placement questions and internal competition may not give him the Oscar nod, since people will want to give at least 1 acting nom to Django Unchained.
7. Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained
Born: November 11, 1974 - Hollywood, Los Angeles, California, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 1994 - Best Supporting Actor for What's Eating Gilbert Grape (nom); 2005 - Best Leading Actor for The Aviator (nom); 2007 - Best Leading Actor for Blood Diamond (nom)
Oscar snubed performances: 2006 - The Departed; 2008 - Revolutionary Road; 2011 - J. Edgar
COMMENT: DiCaprio delivered a couple of Oscar-caliber performances in Revolutionary Road and in the less loved J. Edgar, while starring the well-received Shutter Island and Inception. But he may not get his fourth Oscar nod this year for Django Unchained thanks to the internal competition factor: it's a DiCaprio Vs Waltz. Leo is playing the villain, which is an advantage in this race, but Waltz is living a brighter awards season... but I fear both of them may miss a nod.
COMMENT: DiCaprio delivered a couple of Oscar-caliber performances in Revolutionary Road and in the less loved J. Edgar, while starring the well-received Shutter Island and Inception. But he may not get his fourth Oscar nod this year for Django Unchained thanks to the internal competition factor: it's a DiCaprio Vs Waltz. Leo is playing the villain, which is an advantage in this race, but Waltz is living a brighter awards season... but I fear both of them may miss a nod.
8. Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Born: ? - ? - 1963
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performances: none
COMMENT: No one predicted seeing him winning the LAFCA Award of Best Supporting Actor, but the fact is that he did it! Beasts is getting a lot of awards recognition (thank God!) and his debut is solid enough for an Oscar nomination, specially when the movie is a Best Picture buzzy one. And he's a baker turned actor... the AMPAS would love to recognize a performer with such a backstory!
Born: ? - ? - 1963
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performances: none
COMMENT: No one predicted seeing him winning the LAFCA Award of Best Supporting Actor, but the fact is that he did it! Beasts is getting a lot of awards recognition (thank God!) and his debut is solid enough for an Oscar nomination, specially when the movie is a Best Picture buzzy one. And he's a baker turned actor... the AMPAS would love to recognize a performer with such a backstory!
9. Javier Bardem for Skyfall
Born: March 1, 1969 - Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain
Previous Oscar acting recognition: 2001 - Best Leading Actor for Before Night Falls (nom); 2008 - Best Supporting Actor for No Country for Old Men (win); 2011 - Best Leading Actor for Biutiful (nom);
Oscar snubed performances: 2002 - Los lunes al sol; 2004 - Mar Adentro; 2008 - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
COMMENT: When I said Bardem was one of Skyfall's best shot at an acting nomination I could never imagine this brilliant actor would get Critics' Choice Award and SAG Award nods. The Academy never recognized a Bond movie in the acting fields, but if someone can break this universal truth is Javier Bardem: he has the precursor support other Bond movies actors never had.
10. Ezra Miller for Perks of Being a Wallflower
Born: September 1993 - Hoboken, New Jersey, USA
Previous Oscar acting recognition: none
Oscar snubed performances: 2011 - We Need To Talk About Kevin
COMMENT: He delivered an Oscar-caliber performance last year in We Need To Talk About Kevin (it just gave me chills), but this year he's back to Oscar talk thanks to the unexpected high-quality of The Perks of Being a Wallflower. His Patrick is just so "feel good" and "emotionally complex" at the same time and he's getting some awards traction. A strong contender to the title of unexpected Oscar nominee, in my opinion.
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